Ryan Burson, State Demographer, Missouri Office of Administration

Darren May, Associate Planner / Geographic Information Systems Specialist, St. Charles County, Missouri

Georgia Glidden, Branch Manger, Deer Run Branch Library

Summary:

During the twenty years ending with the 1990 census, Missouri’s demographic picture changed considerably. Despite all the recent emphasis on urban sprawl and abandonment of traditional downtown areas, the fact is that migrating population affects virtually every region of the state. St. Charles is not, by any means the exclusive target for anti-sprawl advocates. Similar instances are reported along the eastern seaboard, through the south, in California, indeed in other nations as far away as China. The entire range of counties along the state’s northern tier shows both current and long term projected declines in population. The greater Kansas City, greater St. Louis, and Springfield-Branson areas show considerable strength, as does the central corridor through the Columbia – Sedalia area. Over the next twenty years, Missouri will likely grow steadily by around five to six percent but unincorporated areas throughout the middle and mid-southern corridors may see growth exceeding 10 percent. Demographers expect Missouri to continue growth at 5.8 percent by 2000, slightly less than the national rate of population increase projected at 8.4 percent, but at higher rates than many other states.

This increase will arise from both natural growth and migration from outside the state’s borders. By 2020, life expectancy is projected at 82 years for females, 77 years for males. The birth rate has remained steady at approximately two children per female for some ten years, and will probably remain at or near present rates. Migration from Missouri to other areas bottomed out in 1985, and the current rate of people leaving the state is more than offset by those coming in so the state expects net positive migration of 80,000 to 100,000 through the year 2010.

The state has changed considerably in the past twenty years. For example, in 1970, 51 percent of Missourians over 25 years of age did not have a high school diploma. By 1990, that figure had declined to 26 percent. In 1970, only nine percent of the post-school age population had either attended college or received a baccalaureate degree; in 1990, 23 percent had attended college, and 18 percent possessed a college degree. Workforce growth mirrors both population and qualification level. The number of working women has increased from 679,000 to 1,070,000 since 1970. Men holding jobs have risen from 1,089,000 to 1,279,000 over the same period. The number of post-school age Missourians not in the workforce declined by 237,000 in the intervening twenty years.

Classifications of households have changed somewhat, in that the 1990 census reported 30 percent Non-Family households, as opposed to 21 percent in 1970. This classification includes single adults, older adults whose families have grown and no longer live under the same roof, and survivors of deceased spouses. Family households with children living in the home comprise 33 percent of the population, down from 41 percent in 1970. The total 33 percent is comprised by 26 percent married couples with children, and seven percent single parent households. Again, secondary statistics support the increase in single parent homes. In 1990, 73.8 percent of Missouri children lived with two parents, down 8.5 percent from the 82.2 percent level in 1970. As expected, the number of single parent homes rose by 9.4 percent over the same period.

In the next ten to twelve years, state demographers believe that St. Charles County will experience net population growth of 126,000 people, bringing the County to about 388,000 by the year 2010. Thus it seems our county’s growth will continue at a rapid pace. From 1990 through 1998, administrative estimates indicate that 81 percent of the net growth in the Missouri portion of the St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area occurred in St. Charles County. The population in the MSA rose 4.4 percent, while St. Charles County grew by 32.2 percent. The County population has doubled since 1978. 12.8 percent of all K-12 students in the MSA are enrolled in schools in St. Charles County; 33 percent of all MSA building permits are issued in the County. The County ranks second statewide in the rate of natural population increase and has a positive net migration rate of 16 percent.

The county is relatively affluent, ranking first in the state for Median Household Income; and third statewide in Average Family Income; Median Family Income; Average Household Income; and Per Capita Income. Reported figures are:

The county snapshot indicates a higher than average level of terminal educational attainment for those residents 25 years of age and older:

 

The county’s reported ethnic diversity is, comparing 1970 to 1990 census figures:

Issues:

Projections indicate most development and population growth will continue within the boundaries of the Golden Triangle ( 40/64 – I-70 – Katy Trail.) In 1990, 62 percent of the county’s population resided in this area. 1998 administrative estimates place the figure at 64 percent, with a projection of 65 percent by 2000.

Land usage is often based on zoning decisions made more than 30 years ago. Thus there are pockets of agriculturally zoned land within residential or commercial developments. Major developments are dependent on special zoning variances or rezoning, complicating the development process. Incorporated and unincorporated areas border so closely that multiple jurisdictions control zoning so many entities may be involved in facilitating or restricting land use.

The county is still mixed in outlook. Not much time has passed since St. Charles County was considered and considered itself rural in nature and character. The county’s current status demands a much stronger urban thrust. With additional bridges, highway development, the potential for enhanced transportation, and the likelihood that St. Charles County may, within 25 years, be larger than the City of St. Louis, St. Charles County may not be able to afford the country outlook it has held so closely for so long.

The county’s political diversity has increased. The County government is more consolidated than it once was, but municipalities have secured far greater power and influence than they once had. Further, while St. Charles was formerly the central municipality in the area, St. Peters has already developed into a peer power and O’Fallon has become one of, if not the, fastest growing city in the state. As population continues to expand westward, Lake St. Louis and Wentzville cannot be far behind.

The continued influx of migrating population will add school age children to existing educational facilities, and increase the demand for services to young people, including learning experiences, activities, and the need for mobility. While the county’s median age has increased to just more than 30 years, young families are and will be locating to the county.

Single family homes are being built and occupied rapidly. There seems to be little interest in cluster or high-density housing, and even less in low-income or supported housing. Large homes built on relatively small lots reduce the demands of outside maintenance, but town-homes, condominiums, and apartments are not emphasized in development plans.

The housing and building market is rising at a comfortable rate. The county tax-rate is roughly equivalent to metropolitan collar counties, and while adequate, may need adjustment to support the increased population forecasted over the next twelve to twenty years.

Outlying areas such as those in the Augusta – New Melle corridor are developing rapidly. Large homes on three-acre or greater lots are not uncommon. Services, access, and infrastructure will have to be balanced to accommodate the needs of citizens outside the county’s central geographic core.

Lincoln and Warren Counties are projected to grow by nearly 30 percent by 2010. These counties started with a smaller population base than St. Charles, but will be absorbing considerable growth over the relatively near future. This growth may add to the need for transportation support in this county, for collateral services, non-resident services, and until those areas develop their own economic base, for business and retail services as well.